The 84th Academy Awards will be handed out this Sunday, and I’ll be live-blogging the event right here on MoveVine. I plan to update during commercials, but if you want minute-by-minute updates and reactions you can follow me on Twitter. In the meantime, here are my final predictions for who will win this weekend. Keep in mind these aren’t my personal picks, but rather predictions based on following the award season closely. If you win your Oscar pool with this info I expect a cut. If you lose, I apologize profusely.
Actor in a Leading Role
• Demián Bichir in “A Better Life”
• George Clooney in “The Descendants”
• Jean Dujardin in “The Artist”
• Gary Oldman in “Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy”
• Brad Pitt in “Moneyball”
BET ON: Jean Dujardin has been campaigning hard for the gold, and his closest competitor George Clooney may swipe it out from under him, but I highly doubt it.
Actor in a Supporting Role
• Kenneth Branagh in “My Week with Marilyn”
• Jonah Hill in “Moneyball”
• Nick Nolte in “Warrior”
• Christopher Plummer in “Beginners”
• Max von Sydow in “Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close”
BET ON: Christopher Plummer. He’s long over-due for the Oscar, and 2012 is his year.
Actress in a Leading Role
• Glenn Close in “Albert Nobbs”
• Viola Davis in “The Help”
• Rooney Mara in “The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo”
• Meryl Streep in “The Iron Lady”
• Michelle Williams in “My Week with Marilyn”
BET ON: Viola Davis has got this in the bag. She’s won every major award up to this point, not even the Almighty could spur an upset.
Actress in a Supporting Role
• Bérénice Bejo in “The Artist”
• Jessica Chastain in “The Help”
• Melissa McCarthy in “Bridesmaids”
• Janet McTeer in “Albert Nobbs”
• Octavia Spencer in “The Help”
BET ON: Octavia Spencer will be the other big Help winner of the night. The crowds love her and she has the best moment in the film.
Animated Feature Film
• “A Cat in Paris”
• “Chico & Rita”
• “Kung Fu Panda 2”
• “Puss in Boots”
• “Rango”
BET ON: Rango is the frontrunner in a pretty weak field. But then again, this has been a pretty weak year for animation fans. Panda 2 and Puss in Boots both have fans, but they’ll split the vote letting Rango come out the victor.
Art Direction
• “The Artist”
• “Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2”
• “Hugo”
• “Midnight in Paris”
• “War Horse”
BET ON: This is where Hugo will start gathering technical awards that act as consolation prizes for missing out on Best Picture.
Cinematography
• “The Artist”
• “The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo”
• “Hugo”
• “The Tree of Life”
• “War Horse”
BET ON: I’m split on picking between Tree of Life and Dragon Tattoo, but considering the Academy’s demographic (older, whiter, maler) I’m leaning towards Dragon Tattoo for the win. The film is very popular with that crowd, so it’ll get some recognition here.
Costume Design
• “Anonymous”
• “The Artist”
• “Hugo”
• “Jane Eyre”
• “W.E.”
BET ON: Usually it’s wise to pick the feature with the oldest time period and call it a day, but this year it’s a hard field. I’m going with Jane Eyre, but if I admit one weak spot in my picking abilities, it’s this one.
Directing
• “The Artist” Michel Hazanavicius
• “The Descendants” Alexander Payne
• “Hugo” Martin Scorsese
• “Midnight in Paris” Woody Allen
• “The Tree of Life” Terrence Malick
BET ON: It pains me to see Scorsese passed over again, but my money’s on Michel Hazanavicius this year. All his competitors have solid support, so the vote will split and he’ll win by default. The same thing happened last year with Tom Hooper.
Film Editing
• “The Artist”
• “The Descendants”
• “The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo”
• “Hugo”
• “Moneyball”
BET ON: This is where Moneyball will get some (well deserved) love. It has the stand out sport sequences and the tonal shifts going for it. The Artist might sneak by if the Academy really loves it, but I doubt it. Moneyball has a lot of fans, and most point to the editing as a major achievement.
Foreign Language Film
• “Bullhead” Belgium
• “Footnote” Israel
• “In Darkness” Poland
• “Monsieur Lazhar” Canada
• “A Separation” Iran
BET ON: A Seperation barely missed out on getting into the Best Picture race. It is a definite lock for this category.
Makeup
• “Albert Nobbs”
• “Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2”
• “The Iron Lady”
BET ON: Some say Albert Nobbs is a lock, but I’m leaning toward The Iron Lady. The Academy will want to recognize the political bio-pic somehow, and this is the only slot where a win doesn’t raise too many eyebrows.
Original Score
• “The Adventures of Tintin” John Williams
• “The Artist” Ludovic Bource
• “Hugo” Howard Shore
• “Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy” Alberto Iglesias
• “War Horse” John Williams
BET ON: John Williams’ double nominations will split against him, so he’s out. Ludovic Bource’s work in The Artist is certainly commendable, and less thoughtful folk will argue that the film relies so thoroughly on the score that the Academy has no choice but to give Bource the gold. The Academy isn’t a very thoughtful lot, so I’m picking The Artist to win.
Original Song
• “Man or Muppet” from “The Muppets”
• “Real in Rio” from “Rio”
BET ON: There is no way on earth the Academy is recognizing Rio for anything. Man Or Muppet has got this locked.
Sound Editing
• “Drive”
• “The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo”
• “Hugo”
• “Transformers: Dark of the Moon”
• “War Horse”
BET ON: The sound categories are always tricky for me. But they’re tricky for most Academy members as well, so looking at the films nominated in both categories narrows it down a bit. Choosing between Hugo, Dragon Tattoo, or Transformers, the average Academy member is going to lean towards Hugo. Remember the consolation prizes I mentioned?
Sound Mixing
• “The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo”
• “Hugo”
• “Moneyball”
• “Transformers: Dark of the Moon”
• “War Horse”
BET ON: Hugo. See above.
Visual Effects
• “Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2”
• “Hugo”
• “Real Steel”
• “Rise of the Planet of the Apes”
• “Transformers: Dark of the Moon”
BET ON: Rise of the Planet of the Apes will get the prize, and deservedly so. The Academy isn’t comfortable giving Andy Serkis an award for his motion capture work, so this will have to suffice.
Adapted Screenplay
• “The Descendants” Screenplay by Alexander Payne and Nat Faxon & Jim Rash
• “Hugo” Screenplay by John Logan
• “The Ides of March” Screenplay by George Clooney & Grant Heslov and Beau Willimon
• “Moneyball” Screenplay by Steven Zaillian and Aaron Sorkin Story by Stan Chervin
• “Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy” Screenplay by Bridget O’Connor & Peter Straughan
BET ON: This is where The Descendants will get their token Oscar love. Moneyball might sneak in, but if the baseball flick gets the editing trophy the Academy will spread the love and toss Descendants this bone.
Original Screenplay
• “The Artist” Written by Michel Hazanavicius
• “Bridesmaids” Written by Annie Mumolo & Kristen Wiig
• “Margin Call” Written by J.C. Chandor
• “Midnight in Paris” Written by Woody Allen
• “A Separation” Written by Asghar Farhadi
BET ON: Woody Allen won’t show up to accept his Oscar on Sunday, but expect to hear Midnight in Paris announced as the victor all the same.
Best Picture
• “The Artist”
• “The Descendants”
• “Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close”
• “The Help”
• “Hugo”
• “Midnight in Paris”
• “Moneyball”
• “The Tree of Life”
• “War Horse”
BET ON: The Artist, all the way. It has won everything leading up to this with no sign of slowing down. If this flick doesn’t win, I’ll eat my hat.
And there we have it. I’m abstaining from making predictions for Documentaries and Short categories, so you’re on your own with those. Good luck to all those placing their bets, and I’ll see you all back here at MovieVine during the ceremony.
The 84th Academy Awards will be hosted by Billy Crystal and airs at 8pm EST on ABC.
